book chapter
AI, Great Power Competition and the Future Operating Environment
Abstract
Artificial intelligence is fundamentally transforming the very fabric of future operating environments. Elements of national power are rapidly changing given advancing technologies, conditions and influences. In terms of great power competition, this forces us to lean ahead into new normals, addressing sustainable US preeminence as both allies and adversaries judge between Chinese financial and economic gains versus US security and political values, all set against the backdrop of aggressive Russian expansion. This chapter first explores different types of artificial intelligence, fundamental drivers and how it is shaping great power competition currently, with a variety of identified risks and opportunities across political, military, economic, social, information and infrastructure domains. Given trends, a horizon scan of underlying operating environment drivers is next performed from a complex adaptive systems perspective. Key drivers include increasing connectivity, compression of timescales, complexity, and uncertainty. These profoundly change the shape, scope and contexts of national security futures with near peer competitors. Complexity frameworks also provide a coherent and comprehensive strategic, cognitive approach to navigating future operating environments through the lens of robust decision making approaches. Finally, this chapter provides some strategic recommendations on how we can intelligently adapt and prepare for change we know is forthcoming. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2024.
Author keywords
artificial intelligence, cognitive warfare, complex adaptive system, great power competition, national strategy, robust decision making