journal article

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Radical Behavior and Armed Conflict Escalation Risks: Case of Donbas (East Ukraine) Warfare

Kostyuchenko Y.; Pushkar V.; Malysheva O.; Yuschenko M.

Publication year: 2022
Source / journal: international journal of cyber warfare and terrorism
Country of origin: Austria, Ukraine
Language: English
Authors’ affiliations: Centre for Aerospace Research of the Earth, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Ukraine & International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria, Social Transformation Group, Ukraine, Scientific Centre for Aerospace Research of the Earth, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Ukraine
Import source: Scopus export

Abstract

The paper considers the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the behavior of militants of illegal armed groups and the population in the militant-controlled territories. The study was conducted on the example of the territories of self-proclaimed “L/DPR” within Donbass (Eastern Ukraine) in the period March-May 2020. Based on the analysis of social networks and media, the main narratives related to the perception of threats of epidemic were identified and analyzed. Its prevalence and dynamics among the militants and population in comparison with radical groups and population of Ukraine was analyzed. The main types of moods and emotions that were associated with the perception of epidemic were identified. The management decisions of the “L/DPR” leaders during the epidemic were analyzed. It was found that the measures of militant “authorities” were not aimed at protecting population but at social management – channeling aggression and constructing propaganda. Copyright © 2022, IGI Global.

Author keywords

conflict escalation risk, conspiracy, crisis anthropology, epidemic, illegal armed groups, mobilization, narrative analysis, propaganda, radical groups, social network, warfare

Open DOI