conference paper
Information influence: Assessing the advantage
Abstract
This research, completed at the National Security College of the Australian National University, proposed and tested an analytical framework and assessment tool, called information influence to measures changes in the level of strategy-driven, state-sponsored information activities by the timeliness, specificity and targeted nature of communications as well as dissemination tactics of publicly available information. This theoretical innovation is intended to drive computational security studies towards improved (and earlier) identification of information warfare, cyber-attack and covert influence activity across a range of platforms. The information influence assessment tool includes metrics underneath measures of timeliness, specificity, targeting and the level of integration and strategy to discern information influence along with the dissemination tactics applied to publicly available information. This establishes a baseline and can be used to identify changes in the level of strategy driven, state sponsored information activities. The information influence assessment tool is intended to drive computational security studies towards improved (and earlier) identification of information warfare, cyber-attack and covert influence activity across a range of platforms. Additionally, the analytical process could be significantly enhanced by automation of aspects, such as data collation and narrative, sentiment and network analysis. Applying the information influence framework to Russian operations in Crimea, Eastern Ukraine and the downing of MH17 demonstrated that it is a robust and sound framework to assess public information campaigns. The study observed an increasing intersection between public information campaigns and intelligence activities. Recent collection at the UK National Archives, supported by Data 2 Decisions CRC resulted in development of new metrics drawing on historical propaganda development and dissemination techniques. Furthermore, it is possible to derive information about the extent to which they are informed by and integrated into military and strategic planning and reveal insight into broader national security and geopolitical strategies through application of the information influence assessment tool. This is important because the enabling infrastructure and dissemination methods of disinformation are evolving rapidly in volume, velocity, variety and breadth amid heightened conflict and global insecurity. © 2018 Curran Associates Inc. All rights reserved.
Author keywords
disinformation, influence, information activities, information effects, information influence, information warfare, intelligence assessment, national security, strategy